The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production will attain no less than 300 million liters in 2022—a 200% improve on 2021 production of 100 million liters. More optimistic calculations estimate complete production in 2022 might attain 450 million liters. Both eventualities place the SAF business on the verge of an exponential capability and production ramp-up towards an recognized tipping level of 30 billion liters by 2030, with the best supporting insurance policies.
Airlines are dedicated to realize internet zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and see SAF as a key contributor. Current estimates count on SAF to account for 65% of the mitigation wanted for this, requiring a production capability of 450 billion liters yearly in 2050.
Having agreed to a Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on local weather on the 41st Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in October 2022, governments now share the identical goal for aviation’s decarbonization and curiosity in the success of SAF.
“There was at least triple the amount of SAF in the market in 2022 than in 2021. And airlines used every drop, even at very high prices! If more was available, it would have been purchased. That makes it clear that it is a supply issue and that market forces alone are insufficient to solve it. Governments, who now share the same 2050 net zero goal, need to put in place comprehensive production incentives for SAF. It is what they did to successfully transition economies to renewable sources of electricity. And it is what aviation needs to decarbonize,” stated Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
To date, over 450,000 industrial flights have been operated utilizing SAF, and the rising variety of airways signing offtake agreements with producers sends a transparent sign to the markets that SAF is required in bigger portions, and up to now in 2022, round 40 offtake agreements have been introduced.
Incentive-based insurance policies
Until we now have commercialized choices for different energy sources similar to hydrogen, all of aviation’s SAF provide will likely be derived from biofuel refineries. These refineries produce renewable biodiesel, biogas, in addition to SAF and their refining capability is ready to develop by over 400% % by 2025 in comparison with 2022. The problem for aviation is to safe its provide of SAF from this capability. And to try this efficiently governments must put in place SAF production incentives comparable to what’s already in place for biogas and biodiesel.